Overview
The Hindu’s Weekly Deep Dive examines why rice prices have risen sharply across India, particularly for fine varieties commonly consumed in southern States. A 26-kilogram bag of fine rice that previously cost approximately ₹1,800 has reportedly increased to ₹2,150, raising the retail price from about ₹70 to ₹82 per kilogram.
The increase is linked to a reduction in the area under Kharif rice cultivation, a patchy and deficient monsoon, expectations of a smaller crop and higher pre-harvest bidding by millers and traders. Fine rice has experienced the greatest pressure, while many coarse varieties remain comparatively stable.
Details
Article: Why Is the Price of Rice Rising Across the Country?
Series: Weekly Deep Dive
Publication: The Hindu
Author: Serish Nanisetti
Publication date: 7 October 2026
Primary subject: The causes and likely direction of rising rice prices in India.
Current retail price: A 26-kilogram bag of fine rice is reportedly selling for approximately ₹2,150, compared with ₹1,800 previously.
Per-kilogram increase: The retail price of fine rice has risen from approximately ₹70 to ₹82 per kilogram.
Cultivation area: The area under Kharif rice cultivation declined from 449.18 lakh hectares in 2025–26 to 433.62 lakh hectares in the current season.
Percentage decline: According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the area under rice cultivation fell by approximately 3.46%.
Monsoon forecast: The reduction in cultivation was partly associated with the India Meteorological Department’s forecast of a below-normal monsoon and the expected influence of El Niño.
El Niño: The warming of the Pacific Ocean associated with El Niño can affect trade winds and weaken India’s monsoon rainfall.
Government advisory: The Central Government advised States to encourage farmers to adopt short-duration crops or crops requiring less water, including pulses and millets.
Changing crop strategy: Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that changing cultivation strategies in rain-fed regions had become necessary.
Monsoon and Market Conditions
Water requirements: Rice is a water-intensive crop that requires seasonal rainfall and adequate water during important stages of plant development.
Monsoon performance: The 2026 south-west monsoon reportedly ended approximately 12.6%–13% below the long-period average.
Regional rainfall: Eighteen of India’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, representing 53% of the country’s area, received normal rainfall.
Deficient rainfall: Seventeen subdivisions, representing approximately 42% of the country’s area, recorded deficient rainfall.
Paddy prices: The open-market price of paddy reportedly increased from approximately ₹3,400 to ₹4,000 per quintal within ten days.
Minimum Support Price: The stated Minimum Support Price for paddy is ₹2,440 per quintal, considerably below the reported open-market price.
International trend: Global rice prices reportedly increased by 5.59% during the preceding month and by 52.4% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.
Cultivation cycle: Kharif rice cultivation generally begins in the first week of June, with harvesting taking place during October and November.
Pre-harvest bidding: Millers and traders monitor crop conditions and begin bidding before the harvest reaches the market.
Market expectations: Wholesale prices can be influenced by crop reports, expected supply and informal market sentiment before the arrival of harvested rice.
Impact on Rice Varieties
Fine-rice demand: Fine rice has experienced a substantial price increase because demand remains comparatively strong.
Southern India: Demand for fine rice is particularly high in southern India, where some State governments also distribute it to ration-card holders.
Coarse-rice prices: Many coarse and easier-to-cultivate varieties continue to sell for approximately ₹40–₹45 per kilogram.
Market arrivals: The supply of coarse rice entering the market has not yet been significantly affected.
Price Outlook
Near-term position: Rice prices may have reached their near-term peak, although the final direction will depend on the volume of arrivals in wholesale markets.
Expected stability: If arrivals are normal, prices may remain broadly stable rather than rising further or declining substantially.
Continuing uncertainty: Weather forecasts, crop conditions and warnings from agricultural officials may continue to influence market prices.
Further information: The complete analysis is available through the article link provided in the original Weekly Deep Dive newsletter.
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